Kennyball

The Case for Placido Polanco

2004-11-15T12:03:00.000-08:00

Let me start by saying I had this guy on my fantasy team last year, and frustrated by his injuries, I sent him to the bench and picked up Mets 3b prospect David Wright and never looked back. While he may not wow the fantasy owners out there, he certainly does a lot to wow MLB GMs, and the Sox should be a team aggresively pursuing this player.

Aaron Gleeman over at Aaron's Baseball Blog does a very good job of summing up just how valuable a guy like Polanco could be to a team (Link here.) He even calls Polanco the "best free agent baseman" available this season, and this year's class includes guys like Jeff Kent, Todd Walker, and Robbie Alomar (though his playing ability has fallen off the face of the Earth.)

This move makes so much sense for the Sox. The great thing about Polanco is his ability to play not only 2b, but SS and 3b as well. His offense is consistent, even if his health isn't, and he is an insurance policy for Joe Crede. If Crede has another sub-par season in 2005, you can move Polanco over to 3rd and play Willie Harris at 2b. Polanco plays solid defense at all of those positions. The only question mark with a guy like Polanco is his health. He missed 40 games in 2003, and 36 in 2004.

The injuries may work in the favor of the Sox, as it could drive his price down to something we can afford. And, as Aaron Gleeman points out, Polanco was able to put up Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) totals of 37.8, and 33.0 in his last two seasons. Just think of what he could do given an entire season. It's possible he could be one of the best offensive second basemen in the game.

Last season, Polanco made $3.95 mil. Venturing a guess, and considering what Vizquel signed for, I'd think somewhere between $5-6mil per for 3-4 years is the likely going rate for Polanco. Granted, that's more than I'd like to spend on infield defense, but Polanco does have some offensive attributes as well, and he's only 29. Considering the Sox were going to pay something similar for a 38 year old SS, I think this would be a better investment.

As for who could play short, Uribe is more than adaquate at that position. In 38 games at short last season, Uribe posted a Zone Rating of .881.

Correction: Why the Giants Overpaid for Omar Vizquel

2004-11-15T11:29:00.000-08:00

Here's the link to the Daily Southtown's coverage.

Basically, Brian Sabean and the Giants signed Vizquel to a 3-year deal worth $12.25mil. At that price, you can have him.

Item: Joe Borchard cast to play Pedro Cerrano in Major League 4

2004-11-10T13:02:00.000-08:00

Joe Borchard was recently released from the Mazatlan Deer of the Mexican Pacific League, after putting up atrocious statistics. In 50 AB, Borchard hit .140 and struck out 21 times, drawing walks only twice. This is embarassing to the White Sox organization, having signed Borchard to a $5.3mil signing bonus after drafting him in the first round of the 2000 draft. Mexico is a place where guys like Borchard are supposed to dominate, eating up hanging curveballs and blasting them into the stratosphere. Well, it turns out Joe can't hit a curveball to save his life, and at this point, he has absolutely no trade value whatsoever.

Makes you reconsider the Freddy Garica/Ben Davis for Olivo/Reed/Morse trade. Remember, this was the position we had "significant depth" at in our farm system. At this point, Borchard, who was the heir apparent to Ordonez, is not a major league player, and the other uber-prospects of Brian Anderson and Ryan Sweeney won't be ready for at least another year or two. This leaves us, at the moment, with Carl Everett and Timo Perez as our RF options for 2005.

Of course, there are some free agent OF, Carlos Beltran being the biggest name of them all, but the White Sox would be Insane with a capitol "I" to go out and sign him for the money he will demand (min. $18mil per for at 7 years). JD Drew is another option, who will be slightly cheaper. I'm not a big fan of that option either. The $19mil we save by not re-signing Ordonez and Valentin needs to be spent on a starting pitcher, and bullpen help. Actually, $4mil of that is already gone, presumably, to Omar Vizquel.

This Borchard fiasco also dampens the possibility of a trade of Konerko or Lee. I'm sure KW was counting on Borchard production to offset the loss of either Konerko or Lee.

So what do you do about Borchard now? Fan sentiment seems to be trade or release him. I can see why: in 201AB last season he hit .174 BA, .249 OBP, .338 SLG, .587 OPS, 9 HR, and a 19/57 BB/SO ratio. He is the kind of player Moneyball spits on. He has 300 career AB, which is a small sample size, but when you combine his minor league stats, you find that Borchard is a guy that will strike out a lot, and that looks like it won't change. But it's not the end of the world. Adam Dunn, whom Borchard is often compared to, set the major league record for strikeouts by a batter this year, and was still quite productive (.266 BA, .388 OBP, .569 SLG, .956 OPS, 46 HR, 108/195 BB/SO ratio). The key difference between these two players is Dunn's ability to draw walks, and Borchard's inability to do so.

At this point, though, the Sox have already paid him $5.3mil+, they may as well keep him around. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Borchard finally "gets it." And it's not as if keeping Borchard on your AAA club is taking away a spot from some other up and coming prospect. (Look through the farm system and tell me who's being held back by Borchard.) The foolish thing to do is to let him go for nothing. There is still some potential return on the $5.3mil signing bonus, although it looks less and less every day. And who knows, maybe Mexico will be a wake-up call for Joe (i.e. learn to take a walk).

Whatever you do KW, don't put him in RF at Comiskey next year. He's not a Major League player.

A link to Phil Roger's article about the Borchard release can be found here.

Kenny Williams Quotes

2004-11-08T16:12:00.000-08:00

From Baseball Prospectus. Because I like posting Kenny's stupid comments...

FEAR AND IGNORANCE

"I felt—and this probably sounds like a stupid statement—that in 2003 we had a team that could not only win the division but win in the playoffs and win the World Series.... That team was not afraid of anyone."
--Kenny Williams, White Sox general manager (Chicago Tribune)

"Listen, if you want to play fantasy baseball, I could build a hell of a team. But we have to deal with the reality of the marketplace."
--Williams

Why the White Sox will Overpay for Omar Vizquel

2004-11-08T14:44:00.000-08:00

A lot of talk coming out of Chicago is that there is a "done deal" that would bring free agent Omar Vizquel to the White Sox to fill departing shortstop Jose Valentin's spot.

I for one, could not be happier that Jose Valentin is gone from the White Sox lineup. And it's not for his defensive prowess, or lack thereof. Valentin's defense was vastly underrated, and placed grossly out of proportions by meaningless statistics such as errors and fielding percentage. Valentin had among the best range of any AL shortstop, and actually had more Fielding Win Shares last year (6.1) than his apparent successor Vizquel (4.5).

No, the reason I am glad to see Valentin go is twofold; a) his $5mil per contract will be gone, and b) his offensive production has seriously waned. Offense was always Valentin's calling card, but his batting average and OBP continue to spiral downwards, and at times he was an automatic out in the lineup (.216 BA, .287 OBP, and 139 SO last season).

So now the Omar Vizquel rumor, which appears to be a 2-year deal worth somewhere in the area of $8-10 million. This deal is expected to go down on November 12, the day free agents are allowed to sign contracts with other teams. The problem is that at $4-$5 mil per year, the White Sox will be vastly overpaying Vizquel, and by jumping the gun and signing him so soon, will be setting the market for shortstops. Remember, there are a vast amount of free agent shortstops this off season, and there are plenty of bargains to be had if a team goes looking for them.

VIZQUEL BATTING STATS

YEAR	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2001	155	611	84	156	2	50	13	61	72	.255	.323	.334	.657
2002	151	582	85	160	14	72	18	56	64	.275	.341	.418	.759
2003	64	250	43	61	2	19	8	29	20	.244	.321	.336	.657
2004	148	567	82	165	7	59	19	57	62	.291	.353	.388	.741

Looking at his stats offensively, there's not terribly much to get excited about, except maybe the stolen bases. Comparing him to Valentin, there's a significant increase in BA and OBP, but a huge loss in the power numbers like HR and SLG.

There is a significant fundamental difference, though, between Vizquel and Valentin, and it is indicative of the new direction the White Sox are moving in. Last season, Vizquel has 20 sacrifice hits, and 6 sac flies, which means he is a player who can move runners over, and can get the situational hits. Now, there are differing schools of thought on the importance of situational hitting, and I myself put less value into it than others, but if the White Sox want to go to a more "well-rounded" team, a guy like Vizquel is an ideal candidate. A look at batting Win Shares from last season shows Vizquel (12.4) is a significant improvement over Valentin (8.4).

A look at Vizquel's speed shows that his stolen base percentage over the last 4 years has actually been increasing (59%, 64%, 72%, 76%) meaning that he may actually be becoming a smarter baserunner. Looking at his speed stats, I don't see him having "lost a step," then again I haven't gone out and timed him with a stopwatch. As a team last year, Cleveland attempted 198 stolen bases, compared to the White Sox's 170 attempts, so with that, along with Vizquel being a year older, I would expect his SB number to drop, maybe somewhere around 13-15 SB, but that's still nearly double Jose Valentin's output.

VIZQUEL FIELDING STATS

YEAR	G	E	DP	FP	lgFP	RF/g	lgRF/g	RF/9	lgRF/9
2001	154	7	88	.989	.973	4.11	4.03	4.31	4.49
2002	150	7	98	.990	.975	4.47	4.15	4.67	4.56
2003	64	7	59	.978	.971	4.97	4.13	5.19	4.54
2004	147	11	91	.982	.972	4.05	4.12	4.31	4.56

Vizquel seemingly brings immediate improvement to the White Sox defense, but the tricky part is determining just how much. I believe it would be safe to say that Vizquel will cut in half the number of errors committed by Valentin, but errors are more or less a meaningless statistic. I'm going to compare Vizquel to some other free agent shortstops using some more meaningful statistics.

2004 Fielding Win Shares

PLAYER	FIELDING WIN SHARES
Christian Guzman	9.6
Jose Valentin	6.1
Craig Counsell	5.8
Orlando Cabrera	5.2
Edgar Renterria	4.9
Omar Vizquel	4.5
Royce Clayton	4.0
Pokey Reese	3.6
Rich Aurilia	3.0
Nomar Garciaparra	2.6
Barry Larkin	2.1

2004 Zone Ratings

PLAYER	ZONE RATING
Pokey Reese	.910
Jose Valentin	.878
Rich Aurilia	.857
Edgar Renterria	.855
Omar Vizquel	.840
Orlando Cabrera	.838
Craig Counsell	.835
Christian Guzman	.823
Royce Clayton	.819
Barry Larkin	.812
Nomar Garciaparra	.753

2004 Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs against Replacement

PLAYER	FRAR
Christian Guzman	38
Craig Counsell	31
Jose Valentin	26
Omar Vizquel	20
Orlando Cabrera	15
Pokey Reese	11
Barry Larkin	11
Edgar Renterria	9
Rich Aurilia	9
Royce Clayton	8
Nomar Garciaparra	4

Looking at these stats, the "best" defensive free agent shortstop is Christian Guzman. But looking at his zone rating makes me question the other numbers, that and the fact that I've seen him play; he is lazy and has a terrible work ethic. I don't want him anywhere near the White Sox clubhouse next season.

Vizquel, as you can see, is in the middle of the free agent class defensively. Jose Valentin actually outperforms him in every category. If anything, Vizquel would improve the White Sox offensively, more than defensively, in that he would set the table better for the meat of the lineup than Valentin ever would have.

Now, the guy the White Sox should take a hard look at is Craig Counsell. He will most likely be had for cheap, much much cheaper than the $4mil per that Vizquel will get from the Sox. He hits left handed, and Sox fans are well aware of the need of left handed bats in their lineup. His offensive numbers (.241 BA, .330 OBP, .315 SLG, .645 OPS) are nothing to get excited about, but he can run just as well as Vizquel (17 SB v. 4 CS), and Counsell is the prototypical "grinder" the White Sox keep talking about. The major drawback to Counsell is that he's stretched out if you play him a full season at short.

This is where Wilson Valdez comes in. You play Valdez against left handed pitchers (against whom he hit .270 compared to .190 against right handed pitchers), and see what he has. He's very good in the field, with a zone rating of .917. It'd be more economical for the White Sox to go in this direction for a year or two, until they can either develop Valdez, or trade for a better shortstop. This way they can spend the $3 mil or so they would save in the bullpen, where they need the help.

At best, Vizquel is a one year stopgap, worth $2-3 million. Of course, Ozzie loves Vizquel, and it seems the White Sox will overpay for him. That's what happens when you let your manager influence personnel decisions.

If they were smart, the White Sox would wait for somebody else to set the market on shortstops. Kenny Williams himself said they were "going to let someone else shape the landscape this off-season." It doesn't seem like Kenny is taking his own advice. So what if you lose Vizquel? There are plenty of other options this off-season, at much more attractive prices.

In KW's Words

2004-11-08T13:01:00.000-08:00

Kenny Williams sent an e-mail to Sox fans declaring the direction he plans on taking the team. I'm going to post it here and use it as a standard to see just how much of what he says he wants to do he accomplishes. (Yes I know this has been out for quite some time now. I'm a little slow on the West Coast here...)

THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
October 5, 2004

STATE OF THE SOX - LOOKING TO 2005
=================================================================

Dear White Sox fans and season ticket holders,

It is still pretty difficult, even painful in a way, to recap the
2004 Chicago White Sox season. When I hired Ozzie Guillen as
manager, one of my reasons was that I wanted someone who took the
losses just as hard as I did and just as hard as our fans do.

While our 2004 season had its bright spots - the 40-plus home run
performance of Paul Konerko, Carlos Lee's club-record, 28-game
hitting streak and Shingo Takatsu's grand entrance onto the
Chicago baseball stage - the overall emotion we are feeling right
now is disappointment. Yes, we certainly battled injuries, and
not many teams lose their three and four hitters in June and
still win, but those are excuses. We were in first place on
July 24 and just did not get it done.

But rather than re-live the past six months (I do that enough in
the middle of the night when I would rather be asleep), I am
focused on this offseason and what we need to accomplish to make
our team better in 2005. I cannot stress strongly enough my
commitment to improving the 2005 White Sox. This organization's
goal remains consistent - to win a World Series championship for
White Sox fans and the city of Chicago.

It is my responsibility to build a team that has a chance to win
its division each season, and we began that project for 2005 well
before this season ended. It is our responsibility to bring all
of our energy, intellect and effort to improving this team. I
promise you everyone on my staff, and everyone in the front office,
is focused on this mission.

We hope to have a team built around our pitching staff. But
anyone who watched us play in 2004 realizes that we need to be
more athletic, better defensively and quicker on the bases.
Slugging it out night after night is just too inconsistent. You
need thunder in the middle of your lineup, especially in the
American League, but at the top and at the bottom we need guys
who can get on base, run, move runners along and handle the bat.
I want to give Ozzie a team he can play with and really manage
during games.

Our first focus entering this offseason is pitching. We feel very
confident in our top four starters, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle,
Jose Contreras and Jon Garland, and believe each one has the
potential to win 15 games and give us 200 innings. Jason Grilli
showed signs he could fill the fifth starter's role, or we may
decide to look toward free agency to round out our rotation.

We also want to build our bullpen from the back forward. In
Shingo and Damaso Marte, we are comfortable that we have at least
two pitchers who can close out games. Cliff Politte was
impressive at times this year and has a role in a dominant
bullpen. Another positive for our club was how Jon Adkins and
Neal Cotts matured as major league pitchers during the season. We
need to add to this mix and make it even better and deeper in 2005.

We will see what players are available on the free agent market
to fit our needs, and I also am willing to pull the trigger on a
trade if I believe it will make our team better. We have been
criticized for our willingness to trade young players for the
chance to win now. I will never apologize for trying to win. It
has been way too long since White Sox fans celebrated in October.
On the wall of our board room is a chart showing our team's
projected roster over the next three years. Miguel Olivo is the
only player we have traded away who is on that chart from 2004 to
2007. I hated to give him up, but I felt that getting a pitcher
like Freddy Garcia through 2007 was more important for this
organization.

Despite his season-ending injury, we still are optimistic about
re-signing Magglio Ordoñez for 2005. Of course, a lot depends
upon his recovery and health. At one point in the season, we
offered Magglio the largest contract ever for a White Sox player.
We still hope to discuss a possible new contract with Maggs over
the coming months.

One player I truly need to commend for his 2004 season is Paul
Konerko. He grabbed all kinds of deserving headlines with his 40-
plus home runs, but he proves his value as a player and teammate
each and every day by how he approaches the game. I am convinced
that if Paul came into the last at-bat of the season with the
chance for either the home run crown or the opportunity to win
the game, he would willingly sacrifice his own success for the
team. He is as unselfish a player as we have. I love his winning
attitude. Paul cares about winning, but even more importantly, he
cares about winning here in Chicago.

It's way too early to map out our exact plans for 2005 and how
this offseason will ultimately unfold, but I did want this letter
to give you some of our thoughts on the 2004 season, but more
importantly, to outline our early thinking as we prepare for 2005.

Everyone in a White Sox uniform and in our front office
appreciates our fans. You are there on the cold nights in April,
during winning and losing streaks in June, July and August, and
are there to celebrate the game-winning home runs and suffer the
painful defeats. You feel it in your gut right along with us. As
we finish the 2004 season, we want to say "Thank You" for your
undying support and for your pride in being a White Sox fan.

Sincerely,

Ken Williams

Mission Statement

2004-09-30T17:10:00.000-07:00

Well, the 2004 season is over, and what a disappointment it was. Now, with the increasing likelyhood that Magglio Ordoñez will not be returning to the team, the talk about a "new-look" Chicago White Sox team may actually become a reality. The days of the sluggin' South Side are over, it seems. And now Kenny Williams is going to try and guide this perennial underachieving team to the playoffs and beyond. Throughout his tenure, there hasn't been a more critical moment for KW as there is right now. This off-season is his make or break off-season. This off-season will determine whether KW should keep his job, or whether all those KW-haters over at WSI have been right all along.

This blog's purpose is to analyze the wheelings, dealings and rumors of the 2004-2005 White Sox Hot Stove Season, but to do so relying on statistical information, and thoughtful baseball analysis. I want to bring objectivity to the question a lot of Sox fans have been asking about Kenny Williams; "Should he stay or should he go?"

Welcome to Kennyball!

2004-09-30T16:41:00.000-07:00

The goal of this blog is to statistically analyze the moves of Kenny Williams during his tenure as general manager of the Chicago White Sox. This site has a few growing pains to overcome, but please check back for more updates soon.